A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the country and triggered chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. They composes two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates encompass identity markers, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless official who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has valuable insights to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."